Facts
Why OpenDirect measurement since the mid-2000s and proxy reconstructions suggest the Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation, the AMOC, has weakened, but as of the mid-2020s there is no scientific consensus on whether a consistent slowing has actually occurred, how much of any weakening reflects climate change versus natural multi-decadal variability, or whether an abrupt collapse could arrive within this century rather than the more gradual decline most comprehensive climate models project. 1 What Would ResolveA longer continuous observational record of the overturning circulation's strength, and climate models whose treatment of Atlantic freshwater transport can be tested against that record rather than relying on simulations some researchers argue understate collapse risk. 1 Discipline NeededOceanography and Climatology 1 Open Question
Direct measurement since the mid-2000s and proxy reconstructions suggest the Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation, the AMOC, has weakened, but as of the mid-2020s there is no scientific consensus on whether a consistent slowing has actually occurred, how much of any weakening reflects climate change versus natural multi-decadal variability, or whether an abrupt collapse could arrive within this century rather than the more gradual decline most comprehensive climate models project.
What would resolve this A longer continuous observational record of the overturning circulation's strength, and climate models whose treatment of Atlantic freshwater transport can be tested against that record rather than relying on simulations some researchers argue understate collapse risk.
OpenOceanography and ClimatologyThermohaline Circulation (Wikipedia)
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